Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12511

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12510, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12511
    28 Oct 2026, 01:49 UTC

    ST8SIA1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionST8SIA1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc42f1cc6bb7c8f3f

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.378 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c2753c18ea675ba74a086e3b…
    follows aeaec638fc8e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12511: ST8SIA1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST8SIA1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.