Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12507

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12506, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12507
    28 Oct 2026, 01:44 UTC

    CAV2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAV2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6544793e1dbb3567

    discovery+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.529 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0a094d5ee8aa3d22cd8c7b7…
    follows 98c1960eaca8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12507: CAV2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.20, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAV2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.