Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0125

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.14, p 0.580). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 124, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0125
    16 Oct 2026, 17:10 UTC

    CHRM3

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionCHRM3 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredfa2c6192b84aa1df

    discovery+0.14 p=0.580 n=27

    replication+0.21 p=0.511 n=28

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.14, p 0.580)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1ba74d7280f0a321165daf0…
    follows df096454605c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0125: CHRM3 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.377, n 55), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.19 (p 0.344, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.333, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.374, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for CHRM3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.