Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12496

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12495, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12496
    28 Oct 2026, 01:33 UTC

    ENPP2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionENPP2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd8cc97606c8511e3

    discovery+0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    75ab373bfb48973790027714…
    follows 1ad77ea98f38…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12496: ENPP2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ENPP2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.