Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12494

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.17 p 0.666). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12493, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12494
    28 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC

    TPM2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPM2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e2ed7ab76b87e3c

    discovery-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.666 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.17 p 0.666)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a43e7d0f996b7ae455170bc7…
    follows 12a54e07f326…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12494: TPM2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPM2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.