Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12490

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.430). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12489, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12490
    28 Oct 2026, 01:25 UTC

    ARHGAP18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGAP18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0d0e03476ad4775a

    discovery+0.30 p=0.430 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.272 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.430)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f90a671cf3a1e68dc2c39951…
    follows 05d7986a8bdd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12490: ARHGAP18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.03, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: +0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18) vs -0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP18 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ARHGAP18 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.28 p 0.328 (needs p < 1.8e-4)