Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12481

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.225). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12480, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12481
    28 Oct 2026, 01:11 UTC

    INHA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionINHA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9320be712ff7a029

    discovery-0.45 p=0.225 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.225)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0676e727c1b58f9b8f5e4d7c…
    follows 02e8a00f2e81…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12481: INHA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for INHA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.