Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12476

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12475, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12476
    28 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC

    KIF21A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKIF21A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered39c603ceb73f30d6

    discovery+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ada9d99a6ecc0fdd45380a08…
    follows fd6fdfd319ff…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12476: KIF21A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KIF21A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.