Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12470

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12469, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12470
    28 Oct 2026, 00:57 UTC

    TMEM178B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM178B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd67df7c2a2ac3212

    discovery-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    replication+0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9274ab170578c1bfa8495e5a…
    follows 4ce1a87271b0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12470: TMEM178B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM178B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.