Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12462

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12461, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12462
    28 Oct 2026, 00:49 UTC

    TOX2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTOX2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0f6ebb8c5fdbc2d7

    discovery+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69dcfa90015e99d257bc0885…
    follows 2f068aeb7976…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12462: TOX2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.02, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TOX2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.