Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12446

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12445, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12446
    28 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC

    HLA-DOA

    microglia, braak

    predictionHLA-DOA in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d4dc6089d1e61fa

    discovery-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    af87779082c5069caf743db6…
    follows 847d5f4be7e7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12446: HLA-DOA in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to +0.02, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HLA-DOA in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.