Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12441

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.803). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12440, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12441
    28 Oct 2026, 00:21 UTC

    NGEF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNGEF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf674ee6a43f6e9b4

    discovery-0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.803)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86d5a81ee44bdad340fd58f3…
    follows a0a43ad1f59c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12441: NGEF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NGEF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.