Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12430

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12429, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12430
    28 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC

    IGF2BP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIGF2BP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc1d798b8ab008e98

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication+0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e3b071f785476840d8c55c6e…
    follows 0a2fb4816d02…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12430: IGF2BP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IGF2BP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.