Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12426

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.803). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12425, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12426
    27 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

    ATP5F1E

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP5F1E in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered98b228d1b6e63d50

    discovery+0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.963 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.803)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dd1d40025c5aa8986656b0a2…
    follows 18840d9afb04…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12426: ATP5F1E in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.15, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP5F1E in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.