Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12407

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12406, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12407
    27 Oct 2026, 23:34 UTC

    PRDM2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRDM2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6cb9fa36997a5dd4

    discovery+0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2a9c1657b8bd200041e134d3…
    follows 833bc243f791…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12407: PRDM2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRDM2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.