Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12390

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.291). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12389, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12390
    27 Oct 2026, 23:10 UTC

    TGM4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTGM4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda7450eb718e8df10

    discovery+0.40 p=0.291 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.291)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    23dbb54cd0394b2dfc6f2fac…
    follows dddfd728a819…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12390: TGM4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TGM4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.