Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1236

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.237). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1235, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1236
    17 Oct 2026, 17:56 UTC

    SLC7A14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC7A14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf9cb5726a51bb07e

    discovery+0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.237)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ec6b32c4f8dc7cdf394cef79…
    follows 6036dc108ebc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1236: SLC7A14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC7A14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.