Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12356

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12355, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12356
    27 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC

    IRS4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIRS4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbc246a3f14212c75

    discovery+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.666 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fdfac86a4c639339fe007a70…
    follows f6151fbbea2c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12356: IRS4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IRS4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.