Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12352

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12351, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12352
    27 Oct 2026, 22:14 UTC

    NPC1L1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNPC1L1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9d1a359a64839622

    discovery-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.619 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9978e7d7ec99a3f3aad778a0…
    follows 26f82532714f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12352: NPC1L1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPC1L1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.