Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12348

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.177). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12347, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12348
    27 Oct 2026, 22:09 UTC

    ARL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered00924d7107db8da4

    discovery+0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.177)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0b30b004396881d7049b2a36…
    follows a88fbe687582…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12348: ARL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.