Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12335

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12334, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12335
    27 Oct 2026, 21:52 UTC

    SLC44A1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC44A1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered68bf3a6eb1c55faa

    discovery-0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.114 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ee1bee029357fe5e108600ff…
    follows bce4a3cb13f4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12335: SLC44A1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.22, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC44A1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.