Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12331

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12330, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12331
    27 Oct 2026, 21:47 UTC

    ACOT7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACOT7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered758ec4f29f8222b3

    discovery-0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    081f732e8702d59064abd05f…
    follows 2a8bd8a4f38f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12331: ACOT7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.77 (p 1.8e-4, n 18) vs -0.21 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACOT7 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ACOT7 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.28 p 0.328 (needs p < 1.8e-4)