Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12327

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.524). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12326, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12327
    27 Oct 2026, 21:41 UTC

    PPIP5K2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPIP5K2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb1202146442d8818

    discovery-0.25 p=0.524 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.524)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c0ff87bf0364c31fbd4f8541…
    follows 66ef4353d8ed…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12327: PPIP5K2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPIP5K2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.