Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12322

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.150). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12321, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12322
    27 Oct 2026, 21:36 UTC

    KAT2B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKAT2B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered77f0fc7b06ed8986

    discovery-0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.150)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    582dbecda0982979c090d5bb…
    follows e4cc5657fcb2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12322: KAT2B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KAT2B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.