Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12318

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12317, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12318
    27 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC

    PPP4R2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP4R2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb24c062198d3f9c6

    discovery+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f2bf75a3be35defb48ae49fd…
    follows 3723471ccb1f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12318: PPP4R2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP4R2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.