Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12307

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12306, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12307
    27 Oct 2026, 21:14 UTC

    P2RY13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionP2RY13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered93d8ac16426ff0eb

    discovery+0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.796 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2b5c3ac45a1df5b94ab0b67b…
    follows 41dac796f2f7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12307: P2RY13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P2RY13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.