Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12302

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12301, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12302
    27 Oct 2026, 21:08 UTC

    SDHD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSDHD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd116f0f3855d1a32

    discovery+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    39759d65173ce40c222774dc…
    follows a0efb49f0e04…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12302: SDHD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SDHD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.