Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12295

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12294, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12295
    27 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC

    RPTN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPTN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7fef93313c61764

    discovery+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    14e02b3a4d3ba891e2b798c6…
    follows 087eeee28ae9…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12295: RPTN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPTN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.