Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12286

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12285, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12286
    27 Oct 2026, 20:45 UTC

    HNRNPK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHNRNPK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e01a9edf4bcb537

    discovery-0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication+0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    70d0bb9c61e74f6fc213b6aa…
    follows 048cfbbb583c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12286: HNRNPK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HNRNPK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.