Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12282

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.80 p 0.0093; held-out -0.43 p 0.244). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12281, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12282
    27 Oct 2026, 20:39 UTC

    NAV2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNAV2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef94c62a66a565e7

    discovery-0.80 p=0.0093 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.80 p 0.0093; held-out -0.43 p 0.244)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    cfea942dd84277872412e20f…
    follows ed9ed8a1d711…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12282: NAV2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18), 95% CI -0.85 to -0.23. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.68 (p 0.0018, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.73 (p 5.6e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.73 (p 5.9e-4, n 18) vs -0.63 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NAV2 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NAV2 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 1.8e-4)