Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12271

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.770). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12270, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12271
    27 Oct 2026, 20:23 UTC

    KIF11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKIF11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb6010532bef9e9ca

    discovery-0.11 p=0.770 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.770)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2d5da37f1f95655df52092b4…
    follows a4fbfed18d7b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12271: KIF11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.25, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KIF11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.