Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12264

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12263, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12264
    27 Oct 2026, 20:15 UTC

    ANKHD1

    microglia, braak

    predictionANKHD1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c013cb0652efc07

    discovery+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.269 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3041f9611d3554eb56323b93…
    follows 6f905e13dd3e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12264: ANKHD1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANKHD1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.