Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12257

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.053). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12256, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12257
    27 Oct 2026, 20:03 UTC

    DNAJC19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDNAJC19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8a392accf5a989d0

    discovery+0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.053)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9a52299808fe85f72e783716…
    follows 2c307e4a4716…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12257: DNAJC19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.21, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAJC19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.