Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12247

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.063). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12246, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12247
    27 Oct 2026, 19:50 UTC

    PCLO

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPCLO in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d8f5a2660da22f8

    discovery+0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.870 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.063)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0afd58d81ddb826c3e707a58…
    follows f8b17caab615…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12247: PCLO in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCLO in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.