Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12237

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.567). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12236, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12237
    27 Oct 2026, 19:36 UTC

    EIF4A2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEIF4A2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb3963b4c4a22ab6

    discovery+0.22 p=0.567 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.567)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d616e5639c703f2fca144b41…
    follows a8566357f0cd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12237: EIF4A2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EIF4A2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.