Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12219

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.202). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12218, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12219
    27 Oct 2026, 19:11 UTC

    MAP1S

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP1S in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7d01326558efaca

    discovery-0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    replication+0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.202)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    37961615ed8cdf88826f1e21…
    follows 84e2b61aee17…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12219: MAP1S in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP1S in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.