Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12216

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12215, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12216
    27 Oct 2026, 19:06 UTC

    CFB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCFB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3f1aa73c521c6d2d

    discovery-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    52e7338fc24641b3354478f7…
    follows dbed8f2899b5…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12216: CFB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CFB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.