Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12212

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.735). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12211, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12212
    27 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

    RGS7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRGS7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered83d95ed97af39592

    discovery+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.735)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bca108c7fcb03f0281d1cdb5…
    follows 93b7c8f9d087…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12212: RGS7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RGS7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.