Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12208

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12207, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12208
    27 Oct 2026, 18:55 UTC

    STAT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTAT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfd3e2ea2240b016f

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fe74bb67aa0bbff98dc4ebd4…
    follows 008386640ddb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12208: STAT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STAT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.