Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12203

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12202, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12203
    27 Oct 2026, 18:46 UTC

    IMPDH2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIMPDH2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede33c3dc7e1235d0a

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    66fa4d5656e286c2625066f9…
    follows e9dbdd249b54…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12203: IMPDH2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.00, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IMPDH2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.