Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0122

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.25, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 121, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0122
    16 Oct 2026, 17:07 UTC

    PTPA

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionPTPA in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered8263807ffd817f7e

    discovery-0.25 p=1.000 n=25

    replication-0.20 p=0.379 n=30

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.25, p 1.000)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    366405eb172e70f5bf0dd6de…
    follows 181c4b5671a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0122: PTPA in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.474, n 55), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.14 (p 0.474, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.436, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.417, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for PTPA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.