Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12199

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.031; held-out +0.29 p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12198, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12199
    27 Oct 2026, 18:41 UTC

    CDH5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDH5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56b7cd1608257a19

    discovery-0.71 p=0.031 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.031; held-out +0.29 p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    fcd608278a8de2b2dff960cb…
    follows a9742dc6d4ed…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12199: CDH5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDH5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.