Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12191

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12190, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12191
    27 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC

    FZD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFZD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered93bb82e7d65f1d38

    discovery+0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b875e5ba765f4de10e2c69e8…
    follows 17906fc88a86…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12191: FZD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FZD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.