Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12171

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12170, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12171
    27 Oct 2026, 18:02 UTC

    NUDT14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUDT14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5d660259be0a684b

    discovery-0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f1755ff3870eb90c2b36736…
    follows 00ff57b8eaaa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12171: NUDT14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUDT14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.