Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12160

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.406). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12159, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12160
    27 Oct 2026, 17:48 UTC

    MASP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMASP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede5367a540b90f2ef

    discovery-0.32 p=0.406 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.406)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3b6e25d1d885e2929d9a597f…
    follows 9494a055c1da…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12160: MASP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18) vs -0.12 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MASP2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MASP2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 1.8e-4)