Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12155

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12154, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12155
    27 Oct 2026, 17:43 UTC

    RAB39A

    microglia, braak

    predictionRAB39A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered95d9f84437e8c297

    discovery+0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ac31c959150d7bd967f9e143…
    follows ed1585d3196d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12155: RAB39A in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.05, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAB39A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.