Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12153

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.154). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12152, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12153
    27 Oct 2026, 17:40 UTC

    ALKBH3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALKBH3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede8150387fedcd564

    discovery-0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.154)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40b084ca385ec6e89dd55ba3…
    follows b954fab438fd…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12153: ALKBH3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALKBH3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.