Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12142

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12141, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12142
    27 Oct 2026, 17:26 UTC

    PIK3R6

    microglia, braak

    predictionPIK3R6 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered073e74b2225b44cc

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c2b3579c8cbfa1603fff3483…
    follows 24ed7b94755e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12142: PIK3R6 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIK3R6 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.