Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12133

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12132, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12133
    27 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC

    COL6A2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL6A2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0955767999efa2cd

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b045a6bb85074117cfb413d5…
    follows a701c2a52b09…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12133: COL6A2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL6A2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.