Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12130

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12129, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12130
    27 Oct 2026, 17:10 UTC

    CEP63

    microglia, braak

    predictionCEP63 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf057fbf911269ebe

    discovery+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d65c9437fd1122a27799aae1…
    follows 0beaf6bf7978…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12130: CEP63 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CEP63 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.